As the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 heads into its final league stages, the battle for the last semi-final spot is heating up. Australia, England, and South Africa have already secured their places in the top four, leaving just one position up for grabs. The India Women’s Cricket Team is still in contention — but the margin for error is slim.
Currently, India sits on four points from five matches, with a solid net run rate (NRR) of +0.526. Their closest rival, New Zealand, also has four points but trails behind with a negative NRR of -0.245. With two league matches remaining, here’s a clear look at how India can still make it to the knockout stage.
Scenario 1: India Wins Both Remaining Matches
This is India’s most straightforward route to the semi-finals. If they defeat New Zealand and Bangladesh, they’ll finish with eight points, which will very likely be enough to secure the fourth spot. Their current NRR is already favorable and will likely stay ahead of competitors, especially with two wins boosting it further.
Scenario 2: India Wins One Match — But Which One Matters
If India manages only one win from their remaining games, things get tricky — and it depends heavily on which match they win.
- If India beats New Zealand but loses to Bangladesh:
India ends on six points. Qualification then depends on how New Zealand fares in their final game against England. If New Zealand loses, both teams will have six points, and the semi-final spot will be decided by NRR. A loss to Bangladesh could damage India’s NRR, so the margin of victory against New Zealand would be critical. - If India loses to New Zealand but beats Bangladesh:
Again, they finish on six points. In this case, India needs New Zealand to lose to England. Since India’s NRR is currently much stronger, they might still qualify if New Zealand doesn’t win big in their final game. - If both India and New Zealand win one match each:
The teams will be tied at six points, and once again, the net run rate will be the deciding factor. India must maintain their NRR edge by ensuring a comfortable win over Bangladesh and minimizing the damage in any potential loss.
The Worst-Case Scenario: India Loses Both Matches
Should India fail to win either of their last two matches, their campaign will end with just four points. With the top three teams already confirmed, it’s highly unlikely that any team with four points will qualify. This is the scenario India will be desperate to avoid.
The New Zealand Clash Is the Decider
With all scenarios considered, the upcoming India vs New Zealand match is effectively a virtual quarter-final. A win there puts India in the driver’s seat. A loss, however, opens up too many variables — and makes their path to the semi-finals far more uncertain.
If the India Women’s Cricket Team can stay focused and deliver in this crucial encounter, a place in the semi-finals of the ICC Women’s World Cup 2025 is still very much within reach.
