England arrive at the Boxing Day Test staring at a 3–0 deficit and an Ashes campaign that threatens to unravel completely. While some will argue the damage is already done, the bigger concern for Ben Stokes’ side is whether the tour now slides into full-blown chaos. Off-field distractions following a mid-series trip to Noosa and the scrutiny around player behaviour have overshadowed preparations, leaving England under intense pressure heading into Melbourne.
Stokes, visibly emotional when speaking on Christmas Eve, was adamant he would protect his players and insisted belief remains within the group. However, he stopped short of sharing Zak Crawley’s optimism that a 3–2 defeat would be acceptable. With the Ashes already retained by Australia, England are now playing for pride, momentum, and to prevent a whitewash.
Australia, meanwhile, have little intention of easing off. Although Pat Cummins declared “job done” after Adelaide, the hosts are targeting a clean sweep and valuable World Test Championship points. Past series have shown how difficult that final step can be, but this group is keen to emulate the dominant 2006–07 and 2013–14 campaigns that left England empty-handed.
England Under Pressure as Selection Gamble Signals a Shift
England’s on-field hopes rest on rediscovering the intensity they showed in the latter stages of the Adelaide Test. Australia will again be missing several frontline bowlers, but that was also true earlier in the series and England failed to capitalise. Stokes himself acknowledged the quality of this Australian side, calling them “very, very good,” a statement that underlined the scale of the task.
Selection changes reflect England’s search for something different. Ollie Pope has finally been dropped after a run of underwhelming performances, with Jacob Bethell recalled to bat at No. 3. Bethell’s first-class record is modest, but his recent Test half-centuries and ability to offer left-arm spin add variety to the side. Gus Atkinson returns to the attack following Jofra Archer’s side strain, while England persist without a specialist spinner, again backing an all-round approach.
Key batters carry personal milestones into the Test. Harry Brook needs just seven runs to reach 3,000 Test runs and could equal Denis Compton as England’s second-fastest to that mark. Ben Duckett is also closing in on 3,000, and England will need both to fire if they are to compete on a pitch expected to assist fast bowlers.
Australia Rotate, Refresh and Target the Whitewash
For Australia, the post-Ashes phase brings rotation rather than relaxation. Cummins will not feature again in the series, with selectors unwilling to risk his long-term fitness after a remarkable return in Adelaide. Nathan Lyon’s injury means Australia will go all-pace once more, leaving out Todd Murphy and considering options such as Michael Neser, Brendan Doggett, or Jhye Richardson.
Usman Khawaja’s recall has proven inspired. Scores of 82 and 40 in Adelaide were enough to secure his place, and he now bats at No. 5 with Cameron Green pushed down to No. 7 amid a lean run with the bat. Alex Carey continues his fine year at No. 6, already compiling one of the most productive seasons ever by an Australian Test wicketkeeper.
Australia’s accidental discovery of an opening partnership has also been a quiet success. Jake Weatherald and Travis Head have provided momentum at key moments, with Head’s strike-rate of over 90 the highest ever for an opener in an Ashes series (minimum 100 runs). Weatherald, however, may still need another significant score to silence doubts ahead of Australia’s next Test assignment in August.
The MCG surface is expected to offer a balanced contest. Curator Matt Page is aiming to replicate last season’s gripping India Test pitch, though Steven Smith noted there was still plenty of grass on Christmas Day, suggesting assistance for the quicks early on. Cooler conditions are forecast for Boxing Day, with warmer temperatures later in the match and a slight chance of rain bookending the Test.
With belief tested, pride on the line, and Australia chasing history, the Boxing Day Test shapes as a defining moment. For England, it is about proving the wheels haven’t completely come off. For Australia, it’s about finishing the job in style at the game’s most iconic venue.
